CFB — additional Python functions — Models and calculators: normalize_pbp–win_prob

normalize_pbp_columns

normalize_pbp_columns(df: 'pl.DataFrame', model: 'str') -> 'pl.DataFrame'

Add card-named copies of any play-by-play columns df already carries.

A hand-built frame using the card's own names passes through untouched; a pbp frame gains the names the card asks for. Copies rather than renames, so nothing the caller passed in is removed.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
df	DataFrame		Caller's frame.
model	str		Bundle stem, used to look up which features are wanted.

Returns

df plus any alias columns that could be resolved.

col_name	type	description
season	integer	Season (4-digit year).
game_id	integer	ESPN game identifier.
game_play_number	integer	Sequential play number within the game (excludes timeouts/end markers).
pos_team_id	integer	Team id of the offense (possession team) on the play.
pos_team	character	Team name in possession at the start of the play (offense, kickoff-aware).
def_pos_team_id	integer	Team id of the defense on the play.
def_pos_team	character	Team name on defense at the start of the play.
pos_team_score	integer	Score for the team in possession at the start of the play.
def_pos_team_score	integer	Score for the defensive team at the start of the play.
half	integer	Half indicator (1 or 2).
period	integer	Period (quarter) number.
down	integer	Down of the play (1-4).
distance	integer	Yards to gain for a first down (or to the goal line in goal-to-go situations).
EPA	double	Expected Points Added on the play (cfbfastR EPA model output).
wpa	double	Win Probability Added on the play (cfbfastR WP model output).
wp_before	double	Win probability for the possession team before the play (0-1).
wp_after	double	Win probability for the possession team after the play (0-1).
def_wp_before	double	Win probability for the defensive team before the play (0-1).
def_wp_after	double	Win probability for the defensive team after the play (0-1).
penalty_detail	character	Parsed penalty description extracted from play text.
yds_penalty	character	Yardage assessed on the penalty.
penalty_1st_conv	logical	TRUE when the penalty resulted in a first down conversion.
new_series	logical	Binary flag for the start of a new series of downs.
firstD_by_kickoff	logical	Binary flag for a new first down arising from a kickoff.
firstD_by_poss	logical	Binary flag for a new first down via change of possession.
firstD_by_penalty	logical	Binary flag for a new first down via penalty.
firstD_by_yards	logical	Binary flag for a new first down via yards gained.
def_EPA	double	EPA for the defensive team on the play (sign-flipped offense EPA).
rz_play	logical	Binary flag for a red-zone play (yards_to_goal <= 20).
scoring_opp	logical	Binary flag for a scoring opportunity (yards_to_goal <= 40).
middle_8	logical	TRUE for plays in the middle-8 window (final 4 min of 1H, first 4 min of 2H).
stuffed_run	logical	Binary flag for a stuffed run (zero or negative yards gained).
change_of_pos_team	logical	Binary flag for change of possession-team on the play.
downs_turnover	logical	Binary flag for a turnover on downs.
pos_score_diff_start	integer	Score differential for the possession team at the start of the play.
pos_score_pts	integer	Points scored on the play attributed to the possession team.
home_wp_before	double	Home team win probability before the play (0-1).
away_wp_before	double	Away team win probability before the play (0-1).
home_wp_after	double	Home team win probability after the play (0-1).
away_wp_after	double	Away team win probability after the play (0-1).
end_of_half	logical	Binary flag for the last play of a half.
orig_play_type	character	Original CFBD play type label before cfbfastR cleaning.
offense_score_play	logical	Binary flag for an offensive scoring play.
defense_score_play	logical	Binary flag for a defensive scoring play.
pos_score_diff	integer	Score differential from the possession team's perspective.
change_of_poss	logical	Binary flag for change of possession on the play (CFBD offense field).
rusher_player_name	character	Name of the rusher on a rushing play.
yds_rushed	integer	Rushing yards gained on the play.
passer_player_name	character	Name of the passer on a passing play.
receiver_player_name	character	Name of the receiver on a passing play.
yds_receiving	integer	Receiving yards gained on the play.
yds_sacked	integer	Yards lost on the sack.
sack_players	character	Combined names of all sack participants.
sack_player_name	character	Primary sack player name.
sack_player_name2	character	Secondary sack player name (when split between two defenders).
pass_breakup_player_name	character	Name of the defender credited with the pass breakup.
interception_player_name	character	Name of the defender credited with the interception.
yds_int_return	integer	Yards gained on an interception return.
fumble_player_name	character	Name of the player who fumbled.
fumble_forced_player_name	character	Name of the player who forced the fumble.
fumble_recovered_player_name	character	Name of the player who recovered the fumble.
yds_fumble_return	integer	Yards gained on a fumble return.
punter_player_name	character	Name of the punter.
yds_punted	integer	Yards the ball traveled on the punt.
yds_punt_return	integer	Yards gained on the punt return.
yds_punt_gained	integer	Net yards gained on the punt (punt distance minus return).
punt_block_player_name	character	Name of the player credited with blocking the punt.
punt_block_return_player_name	character	Name of the player returning a blocked punt.
fg_kicker_player_name	character	Name of the field goal kicker.
yds_fg	integer	Distance of the field goal attempt in yards.
fg_block_player_name	character	Name of the player credited with blocking the field goal.
fg_return_player_name	character	Name of the player returning the blocked/missed field goal.
kickoff_player_name	character	Name of the kickoff specialist.
yds_kickoff	integer	Yards the ball traveled on the kickoff.
yds_kickoff_return	integer	Yards gained on the kickoff return.
rush	logical	Binary flag for a rushing play.
rush_td	logical	Binary flag for a rushing touchdown.
pass	logical	Binary flag for a passing play (includes sacks).
pass_td	logical	Binary flag for a passing touchdown.
completion	logical	Binary flag for a completed pass.
pass_attempt	logical	Binary flag for a pass attempt.
target	logical	Binary flag for a targeted receiver on the play.
sack	logical	Binary flag for a sack (duplicate of sack_vec for downstream use).
int	logical	Binary flag for an interception.
int_td	logical	Binary flag for an interception returned for a touchdown.
turnover_vec	logical	Binary flag for any play classified as a turnover.
kickoff_play	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff play.
scoring_play	logical	TRUE if the play resulted in a score.
td_play	logical	Binary flag for a touchdown play.
touchdown	logical	Binary flag for a touchdown (duplicate of td_play for downstream use).
safety	logical	Binary flag for a safety.
fumble_vec	logical	Binary flag for a play involving a fumble.
kickoff_tb	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff touchback.
kickoff_onside	logical	Binary flag for an onside kickoff attempt.
kickoff_oob	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff out of bounds.
kickoff_fair_catch	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff fair catch.
kickoff_downed	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff downed in the field of play.
kickoff_safety	logical	Binary flag for a kickoff safety.
punt	logical	Binary flag for a punt play.
punt_play	logical	Binary flag for any punt-related play (includes blocks/returns).
punt_tb	logical	Binary flag for a punt touchback.
punt_oob	logical	Binary flag for a punt out of bounds.
punt_fair_catch	logical	Binary flag for a punt fair catch.
punt_downed	logical	Binary flag for a punt downed in the field of play.
punt_safety	logical	Binary flag for a punt safety.
punt_blocked	logical	Binary flag for a blocked punt.
penalty_safety	logical	Binary flag for a safety scored on a penalty.
fg_made	logical	TRUE when the field goal attempt was successful.
fg_make_prob	double	Predicted probability of making the field goal (cfbfastR FG model, 0-1).
penalty_flag	logical	TRUE when a penalty was flagged on the play.
penalty_declined	logical	TRUE when the penalty was declined.
penalty_no_play	logical	TRUE when the penalty nullified the play (no play counted).
penalty_offset	logical	TRUE when offsetting penalties were called.
penalty_text	character	TRUE when penalty information is detectable in the play text.
lead_wp_before2	double	Value of wp_before 2 plays ahead, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_wp_before	double	Value of wp_before on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_pos_team2	integer	Value of pos_team 2 plays ahead, used for sequence-aware derivations.
id	integer	247Sports referencing id for the recruit.
sequenceNumber	integer
text	character	Full play description.
awayScore	integer
homeScore	integer
scoringPlay	logical	ESPN flag marking the play as a scoring play.
priority	logical	TRUE if ESPN flags the play as a priority highlight.
modified	character	ISO timestamp the play record was last modified.
wallclock	character	Real-world ISO timestamp of the play.
teamParticipants	character	Raw ESPN team-level participants payload carried through from the plays feed (stringified).
isPenalty	logical	ESPN's per-play flag that a penalty occurred on the play.
statYardage	integer	Yardage ESPN credits to the play for statistical purposes.
isTurnover	logical	ESPN's per-play turnover flag as shipped in the plays feed (broader than the giveaway-based is_turnover derivation).
type.id	character	ESPN's numeric identifier for the play type.
type.text	character	ESPN's text label for the play type.
type.abbreviation	character	ESPN's abbreviation for the play type.
period.number	integer	Period (quarter) number in which the play occurred.
clock.displayValue	character	Game clock at the play, as the displayed mm:ss string.
start.down	integer	ESPN's down value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.distance	integer	ESPN's distance value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.yardLine	integer	ESPN's yardLine value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.yardsToEndzone	integer	ESPN's yardsToEndzone value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.team.id	integer	ESPN's team.id value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.down	integer	ESPN's down value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.distance	integer	ESPN's distance value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.yardLine	integer	ESPN's yardLine value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.yardsToEndzone	integer	ESPN's yardsToEndzone value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.downDistanceText	character	ESPN's downDistanceText value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.shortDownDistanceText	character	ESPN's shortDownDistanceText value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.possessionText	character	ESPN's possessionText value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.team.id	integer	ESPN's team.id value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.downDistanceText	character	ESPN's downDistanceText value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.shortDownDistanceText	character	ESPN's shortDownDistanceText value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.possessionText	character	ESPN's possessionText value for the play state at the start of the play.
scoringType.name	character	ESPN's name for the scoring type (e.g. touchdown, field goal).
scoringType.displayName	character	ESPN's display label for the scoring type.
scoringType.abbreviation	character	ESPN's abbreviation for the scoring type.
pointAfterAttempt.id	double	ESPN identifier for the point-after attempt type on the scoring play.
pointAfterAttempt.text	character	ESPN description of the point-after attempt and its result.
pointAfterAttempt.abbreviation	character	ESPN abbreviation of the point-after attempt type; drives the extra-point / two-point result derivation.
pointAfterAttempt.value	double	Points ESPN credits for the point-after attempt (1.0 made extra point, 2.0 made two-point try).
drive.id	character	ESPN's id field for the drive containing this play.
drive.displayResult	character	ESPN's displayResult field for the drive containing this play.
drive.isScore	logical	ESPN's isScore field for the drive containing this play.
drive.team.shortDisplayName	character	ESPN's team.shortDisplayName field for the drive containing this play.
drive.team.displayName	character	ESPN's team.displayName field for the drive containing this play.
drive.team.name	character	ESPN's team.name field for the drive containing this play.
drive.team.abbreviation	character	ESPN's team.abbreviation field for the drive containing this play.
drive.yards	integer	ESPN's yards field for the drive containing this play.
drive.offensivePlays	integer	ESPN's offensivePlays field for the drive containing this play.
drive.result	character	ESPN's result field for the drive containing this play.
drive.description	character	ESPN's description field for the drive containing this play.
drive.shortDisplayResult	character	ESPN's shortDisplayResult field for the drive containing this play.
drive.timeElapsed.displayValue	character	ESPN's timeElapsed.displayValue field for the drive containing this play.
drive.start.period.number	integer	ESPN's start.period.number field for the drive containing this play.
drive.start.period.type	character	ESPN's start.period.type field for the drive containing this play.
drive.start.yardLine	integer	ESPN's start.yardLine field for the drive containing this play.
drive.start.clock.displayValue	character	ESPN's start.clock.displayValue field for the drive containing this play.
drive.start.text	character	ESPN's start.text field for the drive containing this play.
drive.end.period.number	integer	ESPN's end.period.number field for the drive containing this play.
drive.end.period.type	character	ESPN's end.period.type field for the drive containing this play.
drive.end.yardLine	integer	ESPN's end.yardLine field for the drive containing this play.
drive.end.clock.displayValue	character	ESPN's end.clock.displayValue field for the drive containing this play.
seasonType	integer	ESPN season type for the game (2 = regular season, 3 = postseason).
week	integer	Game week of the season.
status_type_completed	logical
homeTeamId	integer	ESPN's home-team Id for the game, stamped on every play.
awayTeamId	integer	ESPN's away-team Id for the game, stamped on every play.
homeFinalScore	integer	Final score of the home team from the ESPN game header, repeated on every play of the game; the processing step checks the running score at the last play against it.
awayFinalScore	integer	Final score of the away team from the ESPN game header, repeated on every play of the game; the processing step checks the running score at the last play against it.
homeTeamName	character	ESPN's home-team Name for the game, stamped on every play.
awayTeamName	character	ESPN's away-team Name for the game, stamped on every play.
homeTeamMascot	character	ESPN's home-team Mascot for the game, stamped on every play.
awayTeamMascot	character	ESPN's away-team Mascot for the game, stamped on every play.
homeTeamAbbrev	character	ESPN's home-team Abbrev for the game, stamped on every play.
awayTeamAbbrev	character	ESPN's away-team Abbrev for the game, stamped on every play.
homeTeamNameAlt	character	ESPN's home-team NameAlt for the game, stamped on every play.
awayTeamNameAlt	character	ESPN's away-team NameAlt for the game, stamped on every play.
gameSpread	double	Point spread used as an input to the win-probability model.
homeFavorite	logical	True when the home team was favoured by the spread.
gameSpreadAvailable	logical	True when a spread was available for the game.
overUnder	double	Over/under total used as a model input.
homeTeamSpread	double	ESPN's home-team Spread for the game, stamped on every play.
clock.minutes	integer	Minutes remaining on the game clock at the play.
clock.seconds	integer	Seconds component of the game clock at the play.
lag_half	integer	Value of half on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_half	integer	Value of half on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
start.TimeSecsRem	integer	Seconds remaining in the half from ESPN's clock stamp for this play, which is the end-of-play time in 2005 and 2007+ (the snap time in 2004 and most of 2006); tops out at 1800.
start.adj_TimeSecsRem	integer	ESPN's adj_TimeSecsRem value for the play state at the start of the play.
lead_text	character	Value of text on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_start_team	character	Value of start_team on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_start_yardsToEndzone	integer	Value of start_yardsToEndzone on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_start_down	integer	Value of start_down on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_start_distance	integer	Value of start_distance on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lead_scoringPlay	logical	Value of scoringPlay on the next play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
text_dupe	logical	Always False in the emitted frame -- the duplicate-row filter it gates runs before the column is returned, so it marks nothing and is retained only for schema stability.
end_state_missing	logical	Flag that ESPN's end-of-play state (end.team.id) was absent and the end state was imputed.
start.pos_team.id	integer	ESPN's pos_team.id value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.def_pos_team.id	integer	ESPN's def_pos_team.id value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.def_pos_team.id	integer	ESPN's def_pos_team.id value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.pos_team.id	integer	ESPN's pos_team.id value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.pos_team.name	character	ESPN's pos_team.name value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.def_pos_team.name	character	ESPN's def_pos_team.name value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.pos_team.name	character	ESPN's pos_team.name value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.def_pos_team.name	character	ESPN's def_pos_team.name value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.is_home	logical	ESPN's is_home value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.is_home	logical	ESPN's is_home value for the play state at the end of the play.
homeTimeoutCalled	logical	True when the home team called a timeout on the play.
awayTimeoutCalled	logical	True when the away team called a timeout on the play.
end.homeTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's homeTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.awayTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's awayTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.homeTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's homeTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.awayTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's awayTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.TimeSecsRem	integer	Seconds remaining in the half carried as this play's end state; currently the preceding row's clock stamp.
end.adj_TimeSecsRem	integer	ESPN's adj_TimeSecsRem value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.posTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's posTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.defPosTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's defPosTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.posTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's posTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.defPosTeamTimeouts	integer	ESPN's defPosTeamTimeouts value for the play state at the end of the play.
firstHalfKickoffTeamId	integer	ESPN id of the team that received the opening kickoff.
start.yard	integer	ESPN's yard value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.yard	integer	ESPN's yard value for the play state at the end of the play.
lag_scoringPlay	logical	Value of scoringPlay on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
down_1	logical	True when it is 1st down at the start of the play.
down_2	logical	True when it is 2nd down at the start of the play.
down_3	logical	True when it is 3rd down at the start of the play.
down_4	logical	True when it is 4th down at the start of the play.
down_1_end	logical	True when it is 1st down at the end of the play.
down_2_end	logical	True when it is 2nd down at the end of the play.
down_3_end	logical	True when it is 3rd down at the end of the play.
down_4_end	logical	True when it is 4th down at the end of the play.
td_check	logical	Internal flag used while reconciling whether the play produced a touchdown.
forced_fumble	logical	True when the defense forced a fumble on the play.
is_home	logical
lag_HA_score_diff	integer	Value of HA_score_diff on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
HA_score_diff	integer	Home score minus away score for the play.
net_HA_score_pts	integer	Net points the play added to the home-minus-away score margin.
H_score_diff	integer	Home team's score minus the away team's, from the home perspective.
A_score_diff	integer	Away team's score minus the home team's, from the away perspective.
lag_homeScore	integer	Value of homeScore on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
lag_awayScore	integer	Value of awayScore on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
start.homeScore	integer	ESPN's homeScore value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.awayScore	integer	ESPN's awayScore value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.homeScore	integer	ESPN's homeScore value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.awayScore	integer	ESPN's awayScore value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.pos_team_score	integer	ESPN's pos_team_score value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.def_pos_team_score	integer	ESPN's def_pos_team_score value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.pos_score_diff	integer	ESPN's pos_score_diff value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.pos_team_score	integer	ESPN's pos_team_score value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.def_pos_team_score	integer	ESPN's def_pos_team_score value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.pos_score_diff	integer	ESPN's pos_score_diff value for the play state at the end of the play.
start.pos_team_receives_2H_kickoff	logical	ESPN's pos_team_receives_2H_kickoff value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.pos_team_receives_2H_kickoff	logical	ESPN's pos_team_receives_2H_kickoff value for the play state at the end of the play.
penalty_in_text	logical	True when the play description mentions a penalty.
penalty_count	integer	Number of penalties flagged on the play (0-4 observed).
penalty_declined_count	integer	Number of the flagged penalties that were declined.
penalty_all_declined	logical	Whether every penalty flagged on the play was declined.
penalty_enforcement	character	How the penalty was resolved: one of no_play, declined, offsetting, negating_foul, play_stands, unknown.
penalty_negated_play	logical	Whether the penalty negated the play's result.
pass_breakup	logical	True when a defender broke up the pass.
pass_depth	character	Thrown-pass depth parsed from ESPN play text ("short" or "deep"); null when the text omits it (sacks, screens, pre-2025 text).
pass_direction	character	Pass direction parsed from ESPN play text ("left", "middle", or "right"); null when the text omits it.
rush_direction	character	Rush direction parsed from ESPN play text ("left", "middle", or "right"); null when the text omits it.
qb_hurry	logical	Whether ESPN's play text says the quarterback was hurried into the throw ("hurried by ...").
fg_attempt	logical	True when the play was a field-goal attempt.
pos_unit	character	Possession-team unit label (offense or special teams).
def_pos_unit	character	Defensive possession-team unit label (defense or special teams).
sp	logical
play	logical	Binary flag indicating the row is a counted play (excludes end markers/timeouts/penalties).
cleaned_text	character	Play description with overturned-call prefixes stripped; the text the name and team extractors run against.
kneel_down	logical	Whether the play is an offensive kneel, from explicit kneel text plus an end-of-half TEAM-rush heuristic.
scrimmage_play	logical	True when the play is a play from scrimmage rather than a special-teams or administrative row.
pos_score_diff_end	integer	Score differential from the possessing team's perspective at the end of the play.
fumble_lost	logical
fumble_recovered	logical	True when a fumble on the play was recovered.
field_goal_result	character
extra_point_result	character
two_point_conv_result	character	String result of the two-point conversion attempt: success, failure, or safety (touchback in the defensive end zone).
defensive_two_point_attempt	logical
defensive_two_point_conv	logical
yds_punted_source	character	Provenance of yds_punted: "text" when the value was present before the special-teams derivation step (parsed from the play text, or set by a flag convention such as a blocked punt's 0), "derived" when that step filled it from field position, null when there is no value.
yds_kickoff_source	character	Provenance of yds_kickoff: "text" when the value was present before the special-teams derivation step (parsed from the play text, or set by a flag convention such as a blocked punt's 0), "derived" when that step filled it from field position, null when there is no value.
yds_punt_return_source	character	Provenance of yds_punt_return: "text" when the value was present before the special-teams derivation step (parsed from the play text, or set by a flag convention such as a blocked punt's 0), "derived" when that step filled it from field position, null when there is no value.
air_yardsToEndzone	integer	Yards to the endzone at the catch spot, parsed from the 2025+ vendor catch-spot text; null before 2025 or when unresolvable.
air_yards	integer
yards_after_catch	integer
kickoff_return_player_name	character	Name of the player returning the kickoff, when the play was returned.
punt_return_player_name	character	Name of the player returning the punt, when the punt was returned.
xp_attempt	logical	Whether an extra-point kick was attempted on the play.
xp_made	logical	Whether the extra-point kick was successful.
xp_kicker_player_name	character	Name of the kicker attempting the extra point.
kicking_team	integer	Team id of the kicking team on kickoff, punt, and field-goal plays.
return_team	integer	Team id of the returning side; set on interception, fumble, kickoff, punt, and blocked-kick returns.
fumble_or_muff	logical	Whether the play includes a fumble or a muffed kick or punt (widened beyond ESPN's fumble play types).
recovery_team	integer	Team id parsed from the play text as recovering the fumble or muff.
recovery_team_2	integer	Team id of the second recovery in a multi-recovery scramble, parsed from the play text.
penalty_spot_yardline	integer	Yard line (0-50) at which the penalty was spotted.
penalty_spot_side	character	Side of the field the penalty was spotted on: 'home', 'away' or 'mid' (midfield).
penalty_spot_yardsToEndzone	integer	Yards from the penalty spot to the end zone (0-100).
fumbling_team	integer	Team id of the side that fumbled or muffed the ball, parsed from the play text.
int_turnover	logical	Whether the play is an interception giveaway.
pos_fumble_lost	logical	Whether the possession team fumbled and lost the ball.
def_fumble_lost	logical	Whether the defending team (e.g. a returner after a takeaway) fumbled and lost the ball back.
is_pos_team_turnover	logical	Whether the possession team committed a giveaway (interception or fumble lost).
is_def_pos_team_turnover	logical	Whether the defending team gave the ball back via a lost fumble.
is_turnover	logical	True when the play is a giveaway-based turnover (interception thrown or fumble lost); blocked kicks recovered by the defense are carried by the blocked-kick fields instead.
turnover_team	integer	Team id charged with the giveaway on the play.
is_st_turnover	logical	Whether the giveaway happened on a special-teams play (kick or punt snap, or a return).
is_blocked_punt_turnover	logical	Blocked-punt possession loss (blocked-punt TD, or the defense recovered); kept out of is_turnover to match ESPN's giveaway-only box.
is_blocked_fg_turnover	logical	Blocked-field-goal possession loss (blocked-FG TD, or the defense recovered); kept out of is_turnover to match ESPN's giveaway-only box.
sack_team	integer	Team id credited with the sack (the defense).
interception_team	integer	Team id credited with the interception (the defense).
pass_breakup_team	integer	Team id credited with the pass breakup (the defense).
forced_fumble_team	integer	Team id credited with forcing the fumble -- the side opposite the fumbling player (the covering team on returns).
fumble_recovery_team	integer	Team id that recovered the fumble or muff, from parsed text with a giveaway / own-recovery fallback.
punt_return_team	integer	Team id of the punt-returning side.
kick_return_team	integer	Team id of the kick-returning side.
fg_team	integer	Team id attempting the field goal (the kicking team).
punt_team	integer	Team id punting the ball (the kicking team).
penalized_team	integer	Team id the penalty was assessed against, from the home/away text resolver with a foul-direction fallback.
penalty_yards_signed	integer	Penalty yardage parsed from the play text with era-aware bounds; the printed sign is retained but is not a reliable enforcement direction.
penalty_side	character	Which side committed the penalty -- 'off' (offense) or 'def' (defense).
penalty_yards_net	integer	Net yardage assessed for the penalty, signed relative to the possession team (observed -25 to 25).
penalty_team_id	integer	Team id of the side that committed the penalty.
new_down	integer	Down after the play, including any penalty enforcement.
new_distance	integer	Distance to go after the play, including any penalty enforcement.
under_2	logical	Whether the play began with two minutes or less remaining in the half.
goal_to_go	logical
stopped_run	logical	True when the rush was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
opportunity_run	logical	True when a rush reached 4 yards -- the carries on which the blocking did its job. Matches cfbfastR's espn_cfb_15 definition. Assets published before the 2026-08 fix carry the inverted (4 yards or fewer) flag.
highlight_run	logical	True when the rush gained 8 or more yards.
adj_rush_yardage	integer	Rushing yards capped at 8, the input to the line-yards decomposition.
line_yards	double	Yards credited to the offensive line on a rush, using the standard sliding scale: 1.2x the capped yardage on a loss, all of it through 3 yards, half of each yard from 4 to 8, and a 5.5-yard ceiling beyond that.
second_level_yards	double	Rushing yards earned from 4 to 8, split evenly between line and carrier under the line-yards decomposition.
open_field_yards	integer	Rushing yards gained beyond 8, credited to the ball carrier rather than the line.
highlight_yards	double	Second-level plus open-field yards -- the yardage credited to the carrier.
opp_highlight_yards	double	Highlight yards earned on opportunity runs, isolating carrier production on carries where the blocking succeeded. Assets published before the 2026-08 fix are identically 0 here, because the inverted opportunity_run gate could never co-occur with non-zero highlight yards.
short_rush_success	logical	True when a short-yardage rush gained the yardage needed.
short_rush_attempt	logical	True when the play is a rush in a short-yardage situation.
early_down	logical	True when the play is a scrimmage play on first or second down.
late_down	logical	True when the play is a scrimmage play on third or fourth down.
power_rush_attempt	logical	True when the play is a short-yardage power rushing attempt.
power_rush_success	logical	True when a power rushing attempt gained the yardage needed.
early_down_pass	logical	True when the play is a pass on an early down.
early_down_rush	logical	True when the play is a rush on an early down.
late_down_pass	logical	True when the play is a pass on a late down.
late_down_rush	logical	True when the play is a rush on a late down.
standard_down	logical	True when the offense is on schedule for the series -- first down, second down needing fewer than 8, or third/fourth down needing fewer than 5.
passing_down	logical	True when the offense is behind schedule for the series -- second down needing 8 or more, or third/fourth down needing 5 or more.
TFL	logical	True when the play was a tackle for loss.
TFL_pass	logical	True when the play was a tackle for loss on a pass play (a sack).
TFL_rush	logical	True when the play was a tackle for loss on a rush play.
havoc	logical	True when the defense disrupted the play: a pass breakup, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble.
first_down_yards	logical	Whether the play gained enough yardage to earn a first down.
first_down_penalty	logical
first_down_earned	logical	Whether the play earned a first down by means other than yardage (e.g. by penalty).
start.pos_team_spread	double	ESPN's pos_team_spread value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.elapsed_share	double	ESPN's elapsed_share value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.spread_time	double	ESPN's spread_time value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.pos_team_spread	double	ESPN's pos_team_spread value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.elapsed_share	double	ESPN's elapsed_share value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.spread_time	double	ESPN's spread_time value for the play state at the end of the play.
penalty_assessed_on_kickoff	logical	Whether a penalty was assessed on a kickoff; such plays take the kickoff/touchback win-probability handling.
start.yardsToEndzone.touchback	integer	ESPN's yardsToEndzone.touchback value for the play state at the start of the play.
EP_start_touchback	double	Expected points the offense would have had from a touchback on this play.
EP_start	double	Expected points for the offense at the start of the play.
EP_end	double	Expected points for the offense at the end of the play.
EP_penalty_cf	double	Counterfactual expected points for the penalty branch -- the EP had the alternative penalty outcome been taken (null unless a penalty decision existed).
penalty_cf_yardsToEndzone	integer	Yards to the end zone in the counterfactual penalty branch.
lag_EP_end	double	Value of EP_end on the previous play, used for sequence-aware derivations.
EP_between	double	Change in expected points across the play, before penalty adjustment.
EPA_scrimmage	double	EPA credited to the play on plays from scrimmage.
EPA_rush	double	EPA credited to the play on rush plays.
EPA_pass	double	EPA credited to the play on pass plays.
EPA_explosive	logical	True when the play was explosive.
EPA_non_explosive	double	EPA credited to the play on non-explosive plays.
EPA_explosive_pass	logical	True when the pass play was explosive.
EPA_explosive_rush	logical	True when the rush play was explosive.
first_down_created	logical	True when the play produced a first down for the offense.
EPA_success	logical	True when the play was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_early_down	logical	True when the play on an early down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_early_down_pass	logical	True when the pass play on an early down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_early_down_rush	logical	True when the rush play on an early down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_late_down	logical	True when the play on a late down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_late_down_pass	logical	True when the pass play on a late down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_late_down_rush	logical	True when the rush play on a late down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_standard_down	logical	True when the play on a standard down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_passing_down	logical	True when the play on a passing down was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_pass	logical	True when the pass play was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_rush	logical	True when the rush play was successful by EPA.
EPA_success_EPA	double	EPA on successful plays.
EPA_success_standard_down_EPA	double	EPA on successful plays on a standard down.
EPA_success_passing_down_EPA	double	EPA on successful plays on a passing down.
EPA_success_pass_EPA	double	EPA on successful pass plays.
EPA_success_rush_EPA	double	EPA on successful rush plays.
EPA_middle_8_success	logical	True when the play in the middle eight was successful by EPA.
EPA_middle_8_success_pass	logical	True when the pass play in the middle eight was successful by EPA.
EPA_middle_8_success_rush	logical	True when the rush play in the middle eight was successful by EPA.
EPA_penalty	double	EPA credited to the play attributable to penalties.
EPA_penalty_direct	double	EPA attributable directly to the penalty on the play, separated from the EPA of the play itself (observed -11.7 to 8.05; null when no penalty applied).
EPA_sp	double	EPA credited to the play on special-teams plays.
EPA_fg	double	EPA credited to the play on field-goal attempts.
EPA_punt	double	EPA credited to the play on punt plays.
EPA_kickoff	double	EPA credited to the play on kickoff plays.
start.ExpScoreDiff_touchback	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff_touchback value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.ExpScoreDiff	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio_touchback	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio_touchback value for the play state at the start of the play.
start.ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio value for the play state at the start of the play.
end.ExpScoreDiff	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff value for the play state at the end of the play.
end.ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio	double	ESPN's ExpScoreDiff_Time_Ratio value for the play state at the end of the play.
wp_touchback	double	Win probability the offense would have had starting from a touchback.
wp_before_naive	double	Pre-snap possession-team win probability from the spread-free (naive) WP model.
wp_touchback_naive	double	Naive-model win probability for the kickoff-touchback substitute state, used as the pre-snap WP on kickoffs.
wp_after_naive	double	End-of-play possession-team win probability from the naive model, after the game-logic adjustment chain.
def_wp_before_naive	double	Pre-snap defense win probability under the naive model (1 - wp_before_naive).
home_wp_before_naive	double	Pre-snap naive win probability mapped to the home team.
away_wp_before_naive	double	Pre-snap naive win probability mapped to the away team.
lead_wp_before_naive	double	Next play's pre-snap naive win probability, used in the end-of-half and change-of-possession adjustments.
lead_wp_before2_naive	double	Pre-snap naive win probability two plays ahead, used where the immediately following row is a non-play.
def_wp_after_naive	double	End-of-play defense win probability under the naive model.
home_wp_after_naive	double	End-of-play naive win probability mapped to the home team.
away_wp_after_naive	double	End-of-play naive win probability mapped to the away team.
wpa_naive	double	Win probability added on the play under the spread-free (naive) model.
cp	double
cp_game_state	double	Completion probability from the 8-feature game-state booster, scored on every pass play regardless of which model produced cp. On one scale across seasons, so use it (not cp) for anything summed or averaged; null on non-pass plays.
cp_model	character	Which completion-probability booster scored cp on the play: "air_yards" (the 11-feature model, used where ESPN's play text gives a catch/target spot -- essentially 2025 onward) or "game_state" (the 8-feature model used everywhere else). The two are not on one scale, so group any cpoe aggregate by this column; null on non-pass plays.
cpoe	double
era	integer
xpass	double
pass_oe	double
drive_start	double	Yard line at which the drive began.
drive_stopped	logical	True when the play ended the drive.
drive_play_index	integer	Sequence number of the play within its drive.
drive_offense_plays	integer	Offensive plays run on the drive.
prog_drive_EPA	double	Cumulative EPA accrued by the drive up to and including this play.
prog_drive_WPA	double	Cumulative win-probability added by the drive up to and including this play.
drive_offense_yards	integer	Offensive yards gained on the drive.
drive_total_yards	integer	Total yards gained on the drive.
qbr_epa	double	EPA variant used as an input to the QBR calculation.
weight	double	Listed weight (lbs).
non_fumble_sack	logical	True when the play was a sack that did not produce a fumble.
sack_epa	double	EPA credited to the play when it is a sack.
pass_epa	double	EPA credited to the play when it is a pass.
rush_epa	double	EPA credited to the play when it is a rush.
pen_epa	double	EPA attributable to a penalty on the play.
sack_weight	double	Weighting applied to the sack component of the play.
pass_weight	double	Weighting applied to the pass component of the play.
rush_weight	double	Weighting applied to the rush component of the play.
pen_weight	double	Weighting applied to the penalty component of the play.
action_play	logical	True when the play advanced the game state -- excludes timeouts, end-of-period markers and other non-action rows.
athlete_name	character	Player full name.
rusher_player_id	integer
passer_player_id	integer
receiver_player_id	integer
fumble_player_id	integer	CFBD athlete_id of the player who fumbled.
sack_player_id	integer	Comma-separated CFBD athlete_id(s) of the sacking defender(s).
sack_player_id2	integer	ESPN athlete id of the second sacker on a split sack (regex fallback for an ESPN sidecar blind spot).
interception_player_id	integer	CFBD athlete_id of the defender credited with an interception.
pass_breakup_player_id	integer	CFBD athlete_id of the defender credited with the pass breakup (PBU).
fumble_forced_player_id	integer	CFBD athlete_id of the defender credited with forcing the fumble.
fumble_recovered_player_id	integer	CFBD athlete_id of the player recovering the fumble.
fg_kicker_player_id	integer	ESPN athlete id of the field-goal kicker.
punter_player_id	integer
kickoff_player_id	integer	ESPN athlete id of the player kicking off.
kickoff_return_player_id	integer	ESPN athlete id of the kickoff returner.
punt_return_player_id	integer	ESPN athlete id of the punt returner.
fg_block_player_id	integer	ESPN athlete id of the player who blocked the field goal.
punt_block_player_id	character	ESPN athlete id of the player who blocked the punt.
fg_return_player_id	character	ESPN athlete id of the player who returned the blocked or missed field goal.
punt_block_return_player_id	character	ESPN athlete id of the player who returned the blocked punt.
go_wp	double	Win probability from going for it on fourth down: conversion-probability-weighted mean of the success and failure states (cfb4th port).
first_down_prob	double	Modeled probability of converting the fourth down when going for it.
wp_succeed	double	Mean win probability across yardage outcomes given the fourth-down attempt converts.
wp_fail	double	Mean win probability given the fourth-down attempt fails.
make_fg_wp	double	Win probability given the field-goal attempt is made.
miss_fg_wp	double	Win probability given the field-goal attempt misses.
fg_wp	double	Make-probability-weighted win probability of attempting the field goal.
punt_wp	double	Win probability of punting, from the bundled punt-outcome distribution.
go_boost	double	cfb4th's headline number: 100 * (go_wp - max(fg_wp, punt_wp)), in percentage points.
go_wp_diff	double	go_wp minus the recommended option's WP (0 when going for it is the recommendation, otherwise <= 0).
fg_wp_diff	double	fg_wp minus the recommended option's WP (0 when the field goal is the recommendation, otherwise <= 0).
punt_wp_diff	double	punt_wp minus the recommended option's WP (0 when punting is the recommendation, otherwise <= 0).
fourth_down_recommendation	character	Max-WP fourth-down choice among "go", "punt", and "field_goal".
two_pt_wp	double	Win probability of going for two: conversion-probability-weighted mean of the 2-point and 0-point outcomes (cfb4th port).
xp_wp	double	Win probability of kicking the extra point, weighting the make by the empirical CFB extra-point make rate.
prob_2pt	double	Two-point conversion probability from the bundled CFB two-point model.
two_pt_recommendation	character	Point-after recommendation: "go_for_2" when two_pt_wp exceeds xp_wp, otherwise "kick_xp".
two_pt_wp_diff	double	two_pt_wp minus xp_wp; positive favors going for two.
yards_to_goal	integer	Distance in yards from the offense's spot to the opponent's goal line (0-100).
TimeSecsRem	integer	Seconds remaining in the half at the start of the play.

Example

normalize_pbp_columns(pbp, "xpass_model")

predict_from_card

predict_from_card(df: 'pl.DataFrame', model: 'str', booster: 'Any') -> 'np.ndarray'

Score df with booster, validated and ordered by the model's card.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
df	DataFrame		Frame carrying at least the model's declared features. Extra columns are ignored, so a full pbp frame passes through unchanged.
model	str		Bundle stem, used to look up the card and to name the model in any error.
booster	Any		The loaded xgboost.Booster.

Returns

The booster's raw predictions.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.model_calculators import predict_from_card
predict_from_card(pbp, "xpass_model", booster)

predict_margin

predict_margin(home_adj_net: 'float', away_adj_net: 'float', neutral: 'bool', *, era: 'str' = 'modern', games_played: 'float | None' = None) -> 'float'

Expected home scoring margin from the two net ratings.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
home_adj_net	float		Home team's opponent-adjusted net rating (adj_net from cfb_ratings.efficiency_ratings).
away_adj_net	float		Away team's opponent-adjusted net rating.
neutral	bool		Whether the game is at a neutral site (no home-field advantage).
era	str	'modern'	Era key into cfb_prediction_constants.CFB_CONSTANTS supplying the fitted slope, hfa_points and the attenuation curve.
games_played	float | None	None	Games behind the WEAKER of the two as-of ratings. Supplying it selects the games-played slope (see slope_for_games) and is worth ~0.6 MAE; omitting it falls back to the flat net_points_scale, which is the average over the curve.

Returns

The expected margin (home minus away), in points: slope * (home_adj_net - away_adj_net) + hfa_points on a home field, or without the HFA term on a neutral one. HFA is added in POINTS, not routed through the slope. The previous form multiplied an EPA-scale 2 * hfa_epa by net_points_scale, which tied the two together and let them drift apart unnoticed -- the shipped pair implied ~1.65 points against a measured ~3.0.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.cfb_game_predict import predict_margin
predict_margin(0.30, 0.10, neutral=False)

# With games-played, which selects the attenuation-corrected slope

predict_margin(0.30, 0.10, neutral=False, games_played=9)

predict_total

predict_total(home_adj_off: 'float', home_adj_def: 'float', away_adj_off: 'float', away_adj_def: 'float', game_pace: 'float', *, era: 'str' = 'modern') -> 'float'

Expected combined point total from the four efficiency ratings + tempo.

Fitted linear model total_intercept + total_scale * sum4 + total_pace_scale * game_pace, where sum4 = home_adj_off + away_adj_def + away_adj_off + home_adj_def. The four ratings are summed because each side's scoring rises with its own offense and with the opponent's EPA-allowed (adj_def is lower = better defense). game_pace (the matchup's expected scrimmage plays, home_off_pace * away_off_pace / league_avg_pace) enters because a total is a sum -- tempo scales both sides' points the same way, so it compounds into the total (whereas in the margin, a differential, pace cancels). All three coefficients are fitted on 2023 actual totals.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
home_adj_off	float		Home offense adjusted EPA/play (adj_off_epa).
home_adj_def	float		Home defense adjusted EPA/play allowed (adj_def_epa).
away_adj_off	float		Away offense adjusted EPA/play.
away_adj_def	float		Away defense adjusted EPA/play allowed.
game_pace	float		Expected scrimmage plays for the matchup, i.e. home_off_pace * away_off_pace / league_avg_pace from the ratings' off_pace column (cfb_predict_games computes this for you).
era	str	'modern'	Era key into cfb_prediction_constants.CFB_CONSTANTS supplying the fitted total_intercept / total_scale / total_pace_scale.

Returns

The expected combined total points.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.cfb_game_predict import predict_total
predict_total(0.20, -0.05, 0.10, 0.02, game_pace=66.0)

slope_for_games

slope_for_games(games_played: 'float | None', *, era: 'str' = 'modern') -> 'float'

Points per unit of rating differential, given how many games back it.

A single slope is wrong. An as-of rating built on two games is a far noisier predictor than one built on twelve, and OLS slopes attenuate toward zero as predictor noise grows -- so the correct multiplier is smaller early and grows through the season. Measured, walk-forward on 2014-2025:

0-3 games -> 10.62      6-7 games -> 42.00
4-5 games -> 26.06      8+  games -> 54.49

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
games_played	float | None		Games behind the as-of rating. When two ratings back a prediction this should be the WEAKER (smaller) of the two, since the noisier rating binds the attenuation. None selects the flat net_points_scale.
era	str	'modern'	Era key into cfb_prediction_constants.CFB_CONSTANTS.

Returns

The points-per-rating-unit slope for that bucket, or the flat net_points_scale when games_played is None or falls outside every bucket. The flat value is the average over the curve, so it is a safe default rather than a silent zero.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.cfb_game_predict import slope_for_games
slope_for_games(2)      # early season -- heavily attenuated
slope_for_games(11)     # late season -- near the full slope

# Unknown game count falls back to the flat scale

slope_for_games(None)

special_teams_ratings

special_teams_ratings(plays: 'pl.DataFrame', *, config: 'RatingsConfig | None' = None) -> 'pl.DataFrame'

One row per team: a per-unit special-teams EPA composite.

Special teams was empirically found NOT to obey the offense-minus-defense symmetry efficiency_ratings / fei_ratings rely on, and not to benefit from opponent adjustment, when validated against the 2023 SP+ special-teams oracle (tests/fixtures/cfb_prediction/sp_plus_2023.parquet sp_special):

• The executing pos_team owns the EPA on a kickoff / punt / field goal. The def_pos_team "coverage" side reflects the opposing returner's skill, not the coverage team's, and is not recoverable from EPA -- adding any coverage unit lowers SP+ agreement (0.77 -> 0.58), so coverage/defense units are excluded entirely (see the module's special-teams unit patterns).
• The opponent-adjustment ridge (cfb_adjusted_epa._fit_opponent_ridge) hurts agreement (0.72 vs 0.77) -- special teams is only weakly opponent-dependent, so this function does not fit a ridge at all.
• Splitting the offense-side plays into per-phase units (field goal, punt, kick return) is what helps. Each unit's per-team mean EPA/play is centered on that unit's league-wide per-play mean and the three centered deviations are summed -- true EPA units. This centered form reached Spearman 0.865 against SP+ special teams, beating both the originally-shipped z-scored composite (0.768 -- dimensionless, std ~1.7, range +-5 under an epa` column name; replaced 2026-07-28) and a single-unit offense-minus-intercept ridge fit (0.703).

adj_st_epa is therefore the sum, over the three special-teams units (field goal, punt, kick return), of each unit's per-team mean EPA/play above the unit's league average. A team with no plays in a given unit contributes 0 for that unit (not a penalty). config is accepted for signature parity with efficiency_ratings / fei_ratings but is unused -- there is no ridge (and therefore no ridge_lambda) in this recipe.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
plays	DataFrame		A cfbfastR-schema play-by-play frame carrying game_id, pos_team_id, EPA, and play_type. Not pre-filtered to special-teams plays -- this function does that filtering itself.
config	RatingsConfig | None	None	Unused (kept for signature parity across the three rating functions). See the note above.

Returns

A polars.DataFrame with one row per team_id appearing anywhere in plays: team_id (Utf8), adj_st_epa (Float64, the sum of per-unit executing-team mean EPA/play above each unit's league average). Teams with no special-teams plays get adj_st_epa == 0.0. Zero-row (correctly-typed) when plays has no special-teams plays.

No returns table is published for this function: no capture: it needs play-by-play joined with schedule fields (home, neutral_site, pos_team_id) that neither load_cfb_pbp nor load_cfb_pbp_r carries; only cfb_ratings builds that join, internally.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.cfb_ratings import special_teams_ratings
st = special_teams_ratings(pbp)
st.sort("adj_st_epa", descending=True).head()

win_prob_from_margin

win_prob_from_margin(exp_margin: 'float', *, era: 'str' = 'modern') -> 'float'

Home win probability from an expected margin via the Gaussian CDF.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
exp_margin	float		Expected home margin in points (e.g. from predict_margin).
era	str	'modern'	Era key into cfb_prediction_constants.CFB_CONSTANTS supplying margin_sd.

Returns

Phi(exp_margin / margin_sd) -- the probability the home team wins under a Normal(exp_margin, margin_sd**2) margin model. 0.5 at a zero expected margin.

Example

from sportsdataverse.cfb.cfb_game_predict import win_prob_from_margin
win_prob_from_margin(7.0)