NFL — additional Python functions — Models and calculators: calculate_win

calculate_win_probability

calculate_win_probability(pbp_data: 'pl.DataFrame', *, return_as_pandas: 'bool' = False) -> "Union[pl.DataFrame, 'pd.DataFrame']"

Compute win probability for provided plays.

Mirrors nflfastR's calculate_win_probability(). Uses the spread-adjusted model (wp_spread.ubj) when spread_line is non-null, and falls back to the naive model (wp_naive.ubj) for plays with a missing spread line. Drops and recomputes any existing wp / vegas_wp columns.

Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
pbp_data	DataFrame		Play-by-play DataFrame. Required: all EP columns plus score_differential, game_seconds_remaining, spread_line, receive_2h_ko.
return_as_pandas	bool	False	When True, return a pandas.DataFrame.

Returns

DataFrame with the original columns plus: wp (naive WP) and vegas_wp (spread-adjusted WP).

col_name	type	description
play_id	double	Numeric play id that when used with game_id and drive provides the unique identifier for a single play.
game_id	character	Ten digit identifier for NFL game.
old_game_id	character	Legacy NFL game ID.
home_team	character	The home team. Note that this contains the designated home team for games which no team is playing at home such as Super Bowls or NFL International games.
away_team	character	String abbreviation for the away team.
season_type	character	REG or POST indicating if the timeframe belongs to regular or post season.
week	integer	Season week.
posteam	character	String abbreviation for the team with possession.
posteam_type	character	String indicating whether the posteam team is home or away.
defteam	character	String abbreviation for the team on defense.
side_of_field	character	String abbreviation for which team's side of the field the team with possession is currently on.
yardline_100	double	Numeric distance in the number of yards from the opponent's endzone for the posteam.
game_date	character	Date of the game.
quarter_seconds_remaining	double	Numeric seconds remaining in the quarter.
half_seconds_remaining	double	Numeric seconds remaining in the half.
game_seconds_remaining	double	Numeric seconds remaining in the game.
game_half	character	String indicating which half the play is in, either Half1, Half2, or Overtime.
quarter_end	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the row of the data is marking the end of a quarter.
drive	double	Numeric drive number in the game.
sp	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a score occurred on the play.
qtr	double	Quarter of the game (5 is overtime).
down	double	The down for the given play.
goal_to_go	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the posteam is in a goal down situation.
time	character	Time at start of play provided in string format as minutes:seconds remaining in the quarter.
yrdln	character	String indicating the current field position for a given play.
ydstogo	double	Numeric yards in distance from either the first down marker or the endzone in goal down situations.
ydsnet	double	Numeric value for total yards gained on the given drive.
desc	character	Detailed string description for the given play.
play_type	character	String indicating the type of play: pass (includes sacks), run (includes scrambles), punt, field_goal, kickoff, extra_point, qb_kneel, qb_spike, no_play (timeouts and penalties), and missing for rows indicating end of play.
yards_gained	double	Numeric yards gained (or lost) by the possessing team, excluding yards gained via fumble recoveries and laterals.
shotgun	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the play was in shotgun formation.
no_huddle	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the play was in no_huddle formation.
qb_dropback	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the QB dropped back on the play (pass attempt, sack, or scrambled).
qb_kneel	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the QB took a knee.
qb_spike	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the QB spiked the ball.
qb_scramble	double	Binary indicator for whether or not the QB scrambled.
pass_length	character	String indicator for pass length: short or deep.
pass_location	character	String indicator for pass location: left, middle, or right.
air_yards	double	Numeric value for distance in yards perpendicular to the line of scrimmage at where the targeted receiver either caught or didn't catch the ball.
yards_after_catch	double	Numeric value for distance in yards perpendicular to the yard line where the receiver made the reception to where the play ended.
run_location	character	String indicator for location of run: left, middle, or right.
run_gap	character	String indicator for line gap of run: end, guard, or tackle
field_goal_result	character	String indicator for result of field goal attempt: made, missed, or blocked.
kick_distance	double	Numeric distance in yards for kickoffs, field goals, and punts.
extra_point_result	character	String indicator for the result of the extra point attempt: good, failed, blocked, safety (touchback in defensive endzone is 1 point apparently), or aborted.
two_point_conv_result	character	String indicator for result of two point conversion attempt: success, failure, safety (touchback in defensive endzone is 1 point apparently), or return.
home_timeouts_remaining	double	Numeric timeouts remaining in the half for the home team.
away_timeouts_remaining	double	Numeric timeouts remaining in the half for the away team.
timeout	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a timeout was called by either team.
timeout_team	character	String abbreviation for which team called the timeout.
td_team	character	String abbreviation for which team scored the touchdown.
td_player_name	character	String name of the player who scored a touchdown.
td_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the player who scored a touchdown.
posteam_timeouts_remaining	double	Number of timeouts remaining for the possession team.
defteam_timeouts_remaining	double	Number of timeouts remaining for the team on defense.
total_home_score	double	Score for the home team at the start of the play.
total_away_score	double	Score for the away team at the start of the play.
posteam_score	double	Score the posteam at the start of the play.
defteam_score	double	Score the defteam at the start of the play.
score_differential	double	Score differential between the posteam and defteam at the start of the play.
posteam_score_post	double	Score for the posteam at the end of the play.
defteam_score_post	double	Score for the defteam at the end of the play.
score_differential_post	double	Score differential between the posteam and defteam at the end of the play.
no_score_prob	double	Predicted probability of no score occurring for the rest of the half based on the expected points model.
opp_fg_prob	double	Predicted probability of the defteam scoring a FG next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
opp_safety_prob	double	Predicted probability of the defteam scoring a safety next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
opp_td_prob	double	Predicted probability of the defteam scoring a TD next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
fg_prob	double	Predicted probability of the posteam scoring a FG next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
safety_prob	double	Predicted probability of the posteam scoring a safety next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
td_prob	double	Predicted probability of the posteam scoring a TD next. 'Next' in this context means the next score in the same game half.
extra_point_prob	double	Predicted probability of the posteam scoring an extra point.
two_point_conversion_prob	double	Predicted probability of the posteam scoring the two point conversion.
ep	double	Using the scoring event probabilities, the estimated expected points with respect to the possession team for the given play.
epa	double	Expected points added (EPA) by the posteam for the given play.
total_home_epa	double	Cumulative total EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_epa	double	Cumulative total EPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_rush_epa	double	Cumulative total rushing EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_rush_epa	double	Cumulative total rushing EPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_pass_epa	double	Cumulative total passing EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_pass_epa	double	Cumulative total passing EPA for the away team in the game so far.
air_epa	double	EPA from the air yards alone. For completions this represents the actual value provided through the air. For incompletions this represents the hypothetical value that could've been added through the air if the pass was completed.
yac_epa	double	EPA from the yards after catch alone. For completions this represents the actual value provided after the catch. For incompletions this represents the difference between the hypothetical air_epa and the play's raw observed EPA (how much the incomplete pass cost the posteam).
comp_air_epa	double	EPA from the air yards alone only for completions.
comp_yac_epa	double	EPA from the yards after catch alone only for completions.
total_home_comp_air_epa	double	Cumulative total completions air EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_comp_air_epa	double	Cumulative total completions air EPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_comp_yac_epa	double	Cumulative total completions yac EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_comp_yac_epa	double	Cumulative total completions yac EPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_raw_air_epa	double	Cumulative total raw air EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_raw_air_epa	double	Cumulative total raw air EPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_raw_yac_epa	double	Cumulative total raw yac EPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_raw_yac_epa	double	Cumulative total raw yac EPA for the away team in the game so far.
def_wp	double	Estimated win probability for the defteam.
home_wp	double	Estimated win probability for the home team.
away_wp	double	Estimated win probability for the away team.
wpa	double	Win probability added (WPA) for the posteam.
vegas_wpa	double	Win probability added (WPA) for the posteam: spread_adjusted model.
vegas_home_wpa	double	Win probability added (WPA) for the home team: spread_adjusted model.
home_wp_post	double	Estimated win probability for the home team at the end of the play.
away_wp_post	double	Estimated win probability for the away team at the end of the play.
vegas_home_wp	double	Estimated win probability for the home team incorporating pre-game Vegas line.
total_home_rush_wpa	double	Cumulative total rushing WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_rush_wpa	double	Cumulative total rushing WPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_pass_wpa	double	Cumulative total passing WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_pass_wpa	double	Cumulative total passing WPA for the away team in the game so far.
air_wpa	double	WPA through the air (same logic as air_epa).
yac_wpa	double	WPA from yards after the catch (same logic as yac_epa).
comp_air_wpa	double	The air_wpa for completions only.
comp_yac_wpa	double	The yac_wpa for completions only.
total_home_comp_air_wpa	double	Cumulative total completions air WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_comp_air_wpa	double	Cumulative total completions air WPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_comp_yac_wpa	double	Cumulative total completions yac WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_comp_yac_wpa	double	Cumulative total completions yac WPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_raw_air_wpa	double	Cumulative total raw air WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_raw_air_wpa	double	Cumulative total raw air WPA for the away team in the game so far.
total_home_raw_yac_wpa	double	Cumulative total raw yac WPA for the home team in the game so far.
total_away_raw_yac_wpa	double	Cumulative total raw yac WPA for the away team in the game so far.
punt_blocked	double	Binary indicator for if the punt was blocked.
first_down_rush	double	Binary indicator for if a running play converted the first down.
first_down_pass	double	Binary indicator for if a passing play converted the first down.
first_down_penalty	double	Binary indicator for if a penalty converted the first down.
third_down_converted	double	Binary indicator for if the first down was converted on third down.
third_down_failed	double	Binary indicator for if the posteam failed to convert first down on third down.
fourth_down_converted	double	Binary indicator for if the first down was converted on fourth down.
fourth_down_failed	double	Binary indicator for if the posteam failed to convert first down on fourth down.
incomplete_pass	double	Binary indicator for if the pass was incomplete.
touchback	double	Binary indicator for if a touchback occurred on the play.
interception	double	Binary indicator for if the pass was intercepted.
punt_inside_twenty	double	Binary indicator for if the punt ended inside the twenty yard line.
punt_in_endzone	double	Binary indicator for if the punt was in the endzone.
punt_out_of_bounds	double	Binary indicator for if the punt went out of bounds.
punt_downed	double	Binary indicator for if the punt was downed.
punt_fair_catch	double	Binary indicator for if the punt was caught with a fair catch.
kickoff_inside_twenty	double	Binary indicator for if the kickoff ended inside the twenty yard line.
kickoff_in_endzone	double	Binary indicator for if the kickoff was in the endzone.
kickoff_out_of_bounds	double	Binary indicator for if the kickoff went out of bounds.
kickoff_downed	double	Binary indicator for if the kickoff was downed.
kickoff_fair_catch	double	Binary indicator for if the kickoff was caught with a fair catch.
fumble_forced	double	Binary indicator for if the fumble was forced.
fumble_not_forced	double	Binary indicator for if the fumble was not forced.
fumble_out_of_bounds	double	Binary indicator for if the fumble went out of bounds.
solo_tackle	double	Binary indicator if the play had a solo tackle (could be multiple due to fumbles).
safety	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a safety occurred.
penalty	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a penalty occurred.
tackled_for_loss	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a tackle for loss on a run play occurred.
fumble_lost	double	Binary indicator for if the fumble was lost.
own_kickoff_recovery	double	Binary indicator for if the kicking team recovered the kickoff.
own_kickoff_recovery_td	double	Binary indicator for if the kicking team recovered the kickoff and scored a TD.
qb_hit	double	Binary indicator if the QB was hit on the play.
rush_attempt	double	Binary indicator for if the play was a run.
pass_attempt	double	Binary indicator for if the play was a pass attempt (includes sacks).
sack	double	Binary indicator for if the play ended in a sack.
touchdown	double	Binary indicator for if the play resulted in a TD.
pass_touchdown	double	Binary indicator for if the play resulted in a passing TD.
rush_touchdown	double	Binary indicator for if the play resulted in a rushing TD.
return_touchdown	double	Binary indicator for if the play resulted in a return TD. Returns may occur on any of: interception, fumble, kickoff, punt, or blocked kicks.
extra_point_attempt	double	Binary indicator for extra point attempt.
two_point_attempt	double	Binary indicator for two point conversion attempt.
field_goal_attempt	double	Binary indicator for field goal attempt.
kickoff_attempt	double	Binary indicator for kickoff.
punt_attempt	double	Binary indicator for punts.
fumble	double	Binary indicator for if a fumble occurred.
complete_pass	double	Binary indicator for if the pass was completed.
assist_tackle	double	Binary indicator for if an assist tackle occurred.
lateral_reception	double	Binary indicator for if a lateral occurred on the reception.
lateral_rush	double	Binary indicator for if a lateral occurred on a run.
lateral_return	double	Binary indicator for if a lateral occurred on a return. Returns may occur on any of: interception, fumble, kickoff, punt, or blocked kicks.
lateral_recovery	double	Binary indicator for if a lateral occurred on a fumble recovery.
passer_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that attempted the pass.
passer_player_name	character	String name for the player that attempted the pass.
passing_yards	double	Numeric yards by the passer_player_name, including yards gained in pass plays with laterals. This should equal official passing statistics.
receiver_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the receiver that was targeted on the pass.
receiver_player_name	character	String name for the targeted receiver.
receiving_yards	double	Numeric yards by the receiver_player_name, excluding yards gained in pass plays with laterals. This should equal official receiving statistics but could miss yards gained in pass plays with laterals. Please see the description of lateral_receiver_player_name for further information.
rusher_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that attempted the run.
rusher_player_name	character	String name for the player that attempted the run.
rushing_yards	double	Numeric yards by the rusher_player_name, excluding yards gained in rush plays with laterals. This should equal official rushing statistics but could miss yards gained in rush plays with laterals. Please see the description of lateral_rusher_player_name for further information.
lateral_receiver_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the last(!) lateral on a pass play.
lateral_receiver_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the last(!) lateral on a pass play. If there were multiple laterals in the same play, this will only be the last player who received a lateral. Please see https://github.com/mrcaseb/nfl-data/tree/master/data/lateral_yards for a list of plays where multiple players recorded lateral receiving yards.
lateral_receiving_yards	double	Numeric yards by the lateral_receiver_player_name in pass plays with laterals. Please see the description of lateral_receiver_player_name for further information.
lateral_rusher_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the last(!) lateral on a run play.
lateral_rusher_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the last(!) lateral on a run play. If there were multiple laterals in the same play, this will only be the last player who received a lateral. Please see https://github.com/mrcaseb/nfl-data/tree/master/data/lateral_yards for a list of plays where multiple players recorded lateral rushing yards.
lateral_rushing_yards	double	Numeric yards by the lateral_rusher_player_name in run plays with laterals. Please see the description of lateral_rusher_player_name for further information.
lateral_sack_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the lateral on a sack.
lateral_sack_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the lateral on a sack.
interception_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that intercepted the pass.
interception_player_name	character	String name for the player that intercepted the pass.
lateral_interception_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the lateral on an interception.
lateral_interception_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the lateral on an interception.
punt_returner_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the punt returner.
punt_returner_player_name	character	String name for the punt returner.
lateral_punt_returner_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the lateral on a punt return.
lateral_punt_returner_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the lateral on a punt return.
kickoff_returner_player_name	character	String name for the kickoff returner.
kickoff_returner_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the kickoff returner.
lateral_kickoff_returner_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that received the lateral on a kickoff return.
lateral_kickoff_returner_player_name	character	String name for the player that received the lateral on a kickoff return.
punter_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the punter.
punter_player_name	character	String name for the punter.
kicker_player_name	character	String name for the kicker on FG or kickoff.
kicker_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the kicker on FG or kickoff.
own_kickoff_recovery_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that recovered their own kickoff.
own_kickoff_recovery_player_name	character	String name for the player that recovered their own kickoff.
blocked_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player that blocked the punt or FG.
blocked_player_name	character	String name for the player that blocked the punt or FG.
tackle_for_loss_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier for one of the potential players with the tackle for loss.
tackle_for_loss_1_player_name	character	String name for one of the potential players with the tackle for loss.
tackle_for_loss_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier for one of the potential players with the tackle for loss.
tackle_for_loss_2_player_name	character	String name for one of the potential players with the tackle for loss.
qb_hit_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier for one of the potential players that hit the QB. No sack as the QB was not the ball carrier. For sacks please see sack_player or half_sack_*_player.
qb_hit_1_player_name	character	String name for one of the potential players that hit the QB. No sack as the QB was not the ball carrier. For sacks please see sack_player or half_sack_*_player.
qb_hit_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier for one of the potential players that hit the QB. No sack as the QB was not the ball carrier. For sacks please see sack_player or half_sack_*_player.
qb_hit_2_player_name	character	String name for one of the potential players that hit the QB. No sack as the QB was not the ball carrier. For sacks please see sack_player or half_sack_*_player.
forced_fumble_player_1_team	character	Team of one of the players with a forced fumble.
forced_fumble_player_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a forced fumble.
forced_fumble_player_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a forced fumble.
forced_fumble_player_2_team	character	Team of one of the players with a forced fumble.
forced_fumble_player_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a forced fumble.
forced_fumble_player_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a forced fumble.
solo_tackle_1_team	character	Team of one of the players with a solo tackle.
solo_tackle_2_team	character	Team of one of the players with a solo tackle.
solo_tackle_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a solo tackle.
solo_tackle_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a solo tackle.
solo_tackle_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a solo tackle.
solo_tackle_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a solo tackle.
assist_tackle_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_1_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_2_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_3_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_3_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_3_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_4_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_4_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle assist.
assist_tackle_4_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle assist.
tackle_with_assist	double	Binary indicator for if there has been a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_1_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
tackle_with_assist_2_team	character	Team of one of the players with a tackle with assist.
pass_defense_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a pass defense.
pass_defense_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a pass defense.
pass_defense_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a pass defense.
pass_defense_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a pass defense.
fumbled_1_team	character	Team of one of the first player with a fumble.
fumbled_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the first player who fumbled on the play.
fumbled_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the first player who fumbled on the play.
fumbled_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the second player who fumbled on the play.
fumbled_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the second player who fumbled on the play.
fumbled_2_team	character	Team of one of the second player with a fumble.
fumble_recovery_1_team	character	Team of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_1_yards	double	Yards gained by one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_1_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_2_team	character	Team of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_2_yards	double	Yards gained by one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
fumble_recovery_2_player_name	character	String name of one of the players with a fumble recovery.
sack_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the player who recorded a solo sack.
sack_player_name	character	String name of the player who recorded a solo sack.
half_sack_1_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the first player who recorded half a sack.
half_sack_1_player_name	character	String name of the first player who recorded half a sack.
half_sack_2_player_id	character	Unique identifier of the second player who recorded half a sack.
half_sack_2_player_name	character	String name of the second player who recorded half a sack.
return_team	character	String abbreviation of the return team. Returns may occur on any of: interception, fumble, kickoff, punt, or blocked kicks.
return_yards	double	Yards gained by the return team. Returns may occur on any of: interception, fumble, kickoff, punt, or blocked kicks.
penalty_team	character	String abbreviation of the team with the penalty.
penalty_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player with the penalty.
penalty_player_name	character	String name for the player with the penalty.
penalty_yards	double	Yards gained (or lost) by the posteam from the penalty.
replay_or_challenge	double	Binary indicator for whether or not a replay or challenge.
replay_or_challenge_result	character	String indicating the result of the replay or challenge.
penalty_type	character	String indicating the penalty type of the first penalty in the given play. Will be NA if desc is missing the type.
defensive_two_point_attempt	double	Binary indicator whether or not the defense was able to have an attempt on a two point conversion, this results following a turnover.
defensive_two_point_conv	double	Binary indicator whether or not the defense successfully scored on the two point conversion.
defensive_extra_point_attempt	double	Binary indicator whether or not the defense was able to have an attempt on an extra point attempt, this results following a blocked attempt that the defense recovers the ball.
defensive_extra_point_conv	double	Binary indicator whether or not the defense successfully scored on an extra point attempt.
safety_player_name	character	String name for the player who scored a safety.
safety_player_id	character	Unique identifier for the player who scored a safety.
season	integer	4 digit number indicating to which season(s) the specified timeframe belongs to.
cp	double	Numeric value indicating the probability for a complete pass based on comparable game situations.
cpoe	double	For a single pass play this is 1 - cp when the pass was completed or 0 - cp when the pass was incomplete. Analyzed for a whole game or season an indicator for the passer how much over or under expectation his completion percentage was.
series	double	Starts at 1, each new first down increments, numbers shared across both teams NA: kickoffs, extra point/two point conversion attempts, non-plays, no posteam
series_success	double	1: scored touchdown, gained enough yards for first down.
series_result	character	Possible values: First down, Touchdown, Opp touchdown, Field goal, Missed field goal, Safety, Turnover, Punt, Turnover on downs, QB kneel, End of half
order_sequence	double	Column provided by NFL to fix out-of-order plays. Available 2011 and beyond with source "nfl".
start_time	character	Kickoff time in eastern time zone.
time_of_day	character	Time of day of play in UTC "HH:MM:SS" format. Available 2011 and beyond with source "nfl".
stadium	character	Name of the stadium
weather	character	String describing the weather including temperature, humidity and wind (direction and speed). Doesn't change during the game!
nfl_api_id	character	UUID of the game in the new NFL API.
play_clock	character	Time on the playclock when the ball was snapped.
play_deleted	double	Binary indicator for deleted plays.
play_type_nfl	character	Play type as listed in the NFL source. Slightly different to the regular play_type variable.
special_teams_play	double	Binary indicator for whether play is special teams play from NFL source. Available 2011 and beyond with source "nfl".
st_play_type	character	Type of special teams play from NFL source. Available 2011 and beyond with source "nfl".
end_clock_time	character	Game time at the end of a given play.
end_yard_line	character	String indicating the yardline at the end of the given play consisting of team half and yard line number.
fixed_drive	double	Manually created drive number in a game.
fixed_drive_result	character	Manually created drive result.
drive_real_start_time	character	Local day time when the drive started (currently not used by the NFL and therefore mostly 'NA').
drive_play_count	double	Numeric value of how many regular plays happened in a given drive.
drive_time_of_possession	character	Time of possession in a given drive.
drive_first_downs	double	Number of first downs in a given drive.
drive_inside20	double	Binary indicator if the offense was able to get inside the opponents 20 yard line.
drive_ended_with_score	double	Binary indicator the drive ended with a score.
drive_quarter_start	double	Numeric value indicating in which quarter the given drive has started.
drive_quarter_end	double	Numeric value indicating in which quarter the given drive has ended.
drive_yards_penalized	double	Numeric value of how many yards the offense gained or lost through penalties in the given drive.
drive_start_transition	character	String indicating how the offense got the ball.
drive_end_transition	character	String indicating how the offense lost the ball.
drive_game_clock_start	character	Game time at the beginning of a given drive.
drive_game_clock_end	character	Game time at the end of a given drive.
drive_start_yard_line	character	String indicating where a given drive started consisting of team half and yard line number.
drive_end_yard_line	character	String indicating where a given drive ended consisting of team half and yard line number.
drive_play_id_started	double	Play_id of the first play in the given drive.
drive_play_id_ended	double	Play_id of the last play in the given drive.
away_score	integer	The number of points the away team scored. Is NA for games which haven't yet been played.
home_score	integer	The number of points the home team scored. Is NA for games which haven't yet been played.
location	character	Either Home if the home team is playing in their home stadium, or Neutral if the game is being played at a neutral location. This still shows as Home for games between the Giants and Jets even though they share the same home stadium.
result	integer	The number of points the home team scored minus the number of points the visiting team scored. Equals h_score - v_score. Is NA for games which haven't yet been played. Convenient for evaluating against the spread bets.
total	integer	The sum of each team's score in the game. Equals h_score + v_score. Is NA for games which haven't yet been played. Convenient for evaluating over/under total bets.
spread_line	double	The closing spread line for the game. A positive number means the home team was favored by that many points, a negative number means the away team was favored by that many points. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
total_line	double	The closing total line for the game. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
div_game	integer	Binary indicator of whether or not game was played by 2 teams in the same division.
roof	character	One of 'dome', 'outdoors', 'closed', 'open' indicating indicating the roof status of the stadium the game was played in. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
surface	character	What type of ground the game was played on. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
temp	integer	The temperature at the stadium only for 'roof' = 'outdoors' or 'open'.(Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
wind	integer	The speed of the wind in miles/hour only for 'roof' = 'outdoors' or 'open'. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
home_coach	character	First and last name of the home team coach. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
away_coach	character	First and last name of the away team coach. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
stadium_id	character	ID of the stadium the game was played in. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
game_stadium	character	Name of the stadium the game was played in. (Source: Pro-Football-Reference)
aborted_play	double	Binary indicator if the play description indicates "Aborted".
success	double	Binary indicator whether epa > 0 in the given play.
passer	character	Name of the dropback player (scrambles included) including plays with penalties.
passer_jersey_number	integer	Jersey number of the passer.
rusher	character	Name of the rusher (no scrambles) including plays with penalties.
rusher_jersey_number	integer	Jersey number of the rusher.
receiver	character	Name of the receiver including plays with penalties.
receiver_jersey_number	integer	Jersey number of the receiver.
pass	double	Binary indicator if the play was a pass play (sacks and scrambles included).
rush	double	Binary indicator if the play was a rushing play.
first_down	double	Binary indicator if the play ended in a first down.
special	double	Binary indicator if "play_type" is one of "extra_point", "field_goal", "kickoff", or "punt".
play	double	Binary indicator: 1 if the play was a 'normal' play (including penalties), 0 otherwise.
passer_id	character	ID of the player in the 'passer' column.
rusher_id	character	ID of the player in the 'rusher' column.
receiver_id	character	ID of the player in the 'receiver' column.
name	character	Name, as reported by MFL but reordered into FirstName LastName instead of Last, First
jersey_number	integer	Jersey number. Often useful for joins by name/team/jersey.
id	character	ID of the player in the 'name' column.
fantasy_player_name	character	Name of the rusher on rush plays or receiver on pass plays (from official stats).
fantasy_player_id	character	ID of the rusher on rush plays or receiver on pass plays (from official stats).
fantasy	character	Name of the rusher on rush plays or receiver on pass plays.
fantasy_id	character	ID of the rusher on rush plays or receiver on pass plays.
out_of_bounds	double	1 if play description contains ran ob, pushed ob, or sacked ob; 0 otherwise.
home_opening_kickoff	double	1 if the home team received the opening kickoff, 0 otherwise.
qb_epa	double	Gives QB credit for EPA for up to the point where a receiver lost a fumble after a completed catch and makes EPA work more like passing yards on plays with fumbles.
xyac_epa	double	Expected value of EPA gained after the catch, starting from where the catch was made. Zero yards after the catch would be listed as zero EPA.
xyac_mean_yardage	double	Average expected yards after the catch based on where the ball was caught.
xyac_median_yardage	integer	Median expected yards after the catch based on where the ball was caught.
xyac_success	double	Probability play earns positive EPA (relative to where play started) based on where ball was caught.
xyac_fd	double	Probability play earns a first down based on where the ball was caught.
xpass	double	Probability of dropback scaled from 0 to 1.
pass_oe	double	Dropback percent over expected on a given play scaled from 0 to 100.
era0	integer
era1	integer
era2	integer
era3	integer
era4	integer
down1	integer
down2	integer
down3	integer
down4	integer
home	integer
retractable	integer
dome	integer
outdoors	integer
receive_2h_ko	integer
posteam_spread	double
elapsed_share	double
spread_time	double
Diff_Time_Ratio	double
wp	double	Estimated win probability for the posteam given the current situation at the start of the given play.
vegas_wp	double	Estimated win probability for the posteam given the current situation at the start of the given play, incorporating pre-game Vegas line.

Example

from sportsdataverse.nfl import load_nfl_pbp
from sportsdataverse.nfl.ep_wp import calculate_win_probability

pbp = load_nfl_pbp([2023])
pbp_wp = calculate_win_probability(pbp)
print(pbp_wp.select("wp", "vegas_wp").head())